Trump announces a two-week US-Iran ceasefire, sending oil prices crashing from $111 to below $96. Indian markets, SGX Nifty, and global stocks surge. Here’s what it means for you.
India woke up on Wednesday morning, April 8, to a world that looked markedly different from the one it went to sleep in. President Donald Trump, writing on Truth Social roughly 90 minutes before his own self-imposed 8 p.m. ET deadline, agreed to suspend all bombing and attacks on Iran for a period of two weeks, and in doing so, he may have just handed Indian investors, consumers, and policymakers their biggest relief rally of the year.
Trump wrote: “I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East.”
Oil fell the most in almost six years and global stocks surged as the US-Iran ceasefire announcement swept through markets. Brent crude, which had been trading above $111 a barrel at the height of the conflict, plunged below $100, touching lows near $91 before stabilising around $95-96 by early Wednesday morning India time, a staggering move in a matter of hours. (A scenario is mapped here on where oil goes from $112.)
SGX Nifty futures pointed to a sharp gap-up open for Indian equities with sentiment turning decisively bullish across Asian markets.
The Strait Runs Again
The trigger for this shift is the Strait of Hormuz. The effective closure of the crucial waterway — through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes — had caused the biggest oil supply shock on record, affecting an estimated 12 to 15 million barrels of crude oil a day. Trump’s ceasefire is contingent on Iran allowing the complete reopening of the strait. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council confirmed that safe passage through the waterway would be permitted during the ceasefire period.
For India, which imports roughly 85% of its crude oil needs, the Hormuz disruption had been a slow-burning crisis. Fuel prices were under pressure, the rupee was stressed, and inflation fears were mounting. But now a drop of over $15 per barrel overnight comes as a big relief.
What This Means
Lower crude directly compresses India’s import bill, easing pressure on the current account deficit and giving the Reserve Bank of India more room to manoeuvre on interest rates. A softer oil price also revives hopes of Fed rate cuts in the United States, US Treasury yields fell sharply in Asian trading, which typically means a weaker dollar and stronger capital inflows into emerging markets like India.
S&P 500 futures soared over 2.5%, Dow futures spiked by nearly 1,000 points, and Nasdaq futures jumped close to 3%. The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, is expected to cool sharply a signal that risk appetite is firmly back.
Indian volatility indices should follow, including the Vix should head lower in the coming weaks, making the case for equities compelling, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors like banking, NBFCs, real estate, and auto. Oil marketing companies such as HPCL, BPCL, and IOC, squeezed between rising crude and regulated retail pricing, stand to be among the biggest beneficiaries on Dalal Street. For a deeper read on how far the Nifty could run from here, see four scenarios for India markets in 2026
Aviation stocks, crushed by jet fuel costs through this conflict, could see sharp recoveries. Broader consumer spending plays also look attractive as pump-price relief filters through to household budgets.
One note of caution: two weeks is not peace. The ceasefire is conditional, negotiations remain fragile, and if talks stall, crude could reverse violently. Traders should treat this as a relief rally with a timer attached, trade the bounce, but watch the clock. For now, though, India has every reason to smile. April 8, 2026, may well be remembered as the day the oil shock blinked first.
For more details here is how to build your portfolio during this crash