The International Ports Story Is Only Getting Started

Colombo West ramping fast, marine fleet at 135 vessels, Argentina LNG contract signed, Rs 900 billion capex plan funded from internal accruals 

There are infrastructure companies that grow steadily and there are infrastructure companies that are simultaneously executing a domestic expansion, ramping an international port in Sri Lanka, growing a marine fleet, signing LNG contracts in South America and planning to spend Rs 900 billion over five years — all while maintaining a net debt-to-EBITDA below 2x.

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone sits firmly in the second category. Q1FY27 delivered consolidated revenue of Rs 108.2 billion — up 18.6% year-on-year, beating Antique’s estimate by 4.7%. EBITDA of Rs 65.4 billion beat estimates by 8.1%. Antique Stock Broking raises its target price to Rs 2,013 from Rs 1,959 and maintains BUY.

The International Ports Surprise

The standout of the quarter was not the domestic business — which delivered a solid but expected performance — but the international ports segment, which grew revenue 79.5% year-on-year and 22.9% sequentially. The driver was the ramp-up of the Colombo West International Terminal in Sri Lanka, alongside the integration of the North Queensland Export Terminal in Australia. Together, these two assets are beginning to contribute at a scale that is materially changing APSEZ’s international earnings profile.

International ports generated EBITDA of approximately Rs 7.3 billion in Q1FY27 — materially higher year-on-year — and the trajectory is clearly upward as CWIT continues to ramp. Management plans further investment of Rs 60-70 billion in international ports over FY27-31, primarily focused on CWIT Phase 2 expansion. “International ports’ revenue grew by 79.5% YoY and 22.9% QoQ, driven by ramp-up of Colombo West International Terminal,” Antique’s report notes — and with Phase 2 still ahead, the contribution from this segment will continue to grow.

Containerisation Driving the Mix

The domestic port business handled approximately 115 million metric tons of cargo in Q1FY27 — up 2.2% year-on-year — with domestic ports revenue growing 12.3% year-on-year and 6.1% sequentially. The growth was driven by higher container volumes and liquid cargo, which carry better realisations than dry bulk. APSEZ’s all-India container market share stood at 44.8% — broadly stable against the 45.2% of a year ago, maintaining its dominant position in one of the most strategically important segments of India’s port infrastructure.

Domestic ports EBITDA of Rs 51.5 billion grew 11.1% year-on-year and 6.1% sequentially — healthy growth from a large base. The long-term capacity expansion plan is ambitious: Rs 600-630 billion is earmarked to increase domestic port capacity to 1,000 MMT with an aim to handle 850 MMT by approximately 2030. For context, the current throughput is 115 MMT per quarter — the destination capacity target implies a long runway of volume growth for the domestic business alone.

Argentina LNG the New Chapter

The marine segment is evolving rapidly from a supporting function into a meaningful revenue contributor. Revenue grew 66.5% year-on-year to Rs 9 billion — aided by fleet addition that has taken the vessel count to 135. EBITDA of Rs 4 billion grew 36% year-on-year and 37.4% sequentially. To support further growth, APSEZ plans to enhance deep water engineering and offshore capabilities in Europe — a capability-building investment that positions the marine business for higher-value international contracts.

The most intriguing new development is the 10-year contract supporting Argentina’s first LNG exports to India. “APSEZ has signed a 10-year contract supporting Argentina’s first LNG exports to India,” Antique notes — a long-duration, internationally significant contract that extends APSEZ’s presence into the LNG supply chain and adds a new geography to what is becoming a genuinely global marine and port franchise.

The Vizhinjam Divestment

APSEZ has announced a definitive agreement with MSC Group’s terminal arm, Terminal Investment Ltd, for the divestment of a 49% interest in its Vizhinjam port — pending regulatory approvals. This transaction is strategically important for two reasons. First, it brings in a world-class international terminal operator as a partner in one of India’s most strategically located deepwater ports. Second, it partially monetises an asset that has required significant capital investment, providing cash flows that can be redeployed into the broader expansion programme.

Comfortable and Expanding

Consolidated net debt at the end of Q1FY27 stood at Rs 443.5 billion — a 3.4% sequential increase as capex continues. Net debt-to-EBITDA at approximately 1.9x remains comfortably below the company’s own policy threshold of 2.5x. Management has guided FY27 capex of Rs 120-140 billion, with the long-term plan of Rs 900-1,000 billion over FY27-31 “expected to be funded primarily from internal accruals” — a statement about cash generation capacity that is as important as the investment plan itself.

The capex story: Rs 600-630 billion for domestic port capacity, Rs 60-70 billion for international ports, Rs 70-90 billion for logistics, Rs 110-130 billion for marine fleet expansion and Rs 60-80 billion for technology, automation and decarbonisation.

What Antique Thinks It Is Worth

Antique rolls its valuation base forward to first half FY29 from FY28, applying a 16x consolidated EV/EBITDA multiple — a premium that reflects APSEZ’s combination of infrastructure annuity cash flows, dominant market position and a visible multi-year growth pipeline. The minor tweaks to estimates — minus 1% for FY27 EBITDA, plus 1% for FY28 — are rounding-level adjustments that do not change the thesis.

Adani Ports is one of the few infrastructure businesses in India that is simultaneously executing at domestic scale and building an international platform. The domestic port franchise — with 44.8% container market share and a capacity expansion plan targeting 1,000 MMT — is a long-duration compounding story on its own. The international layer — Colombo West ramping, NQXT integrated, Argentina LNG contracted, marine fleet expanding — adds a global dimension that is beginning to show up in the quarterly numbers and will become increasingly visible over FY27-29. Antique Stock Broking raises its target price to Rs 2,013 from Rs 1,959 and maintains BUY.