India store count tripling by FY31, SSSG of 18%, EBITDA CAGR of 37%, next-day delivery in 78 cities and a vertically integrated supply chain
Lenskart has endured macro volatility — including geopolitical disruptions and consumer sentiment swings — and expanded market share through all of it. The stock has delivered over 50% returns since listing. India revenue stands at Rs 53 billion in FY26 across approximately 2,600 stores. International revenue is at Rs 38 billion across 718 stores in Japan, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and other markets.
“Lenskart has turned a strong start into a sustained run,” ICICI Securities states. The question investors are now asking is whether the growth is durable and whether the valuation is justified.
The brokerage initiates with a BUY rating and a target price of Rs 750 — implying 15% upside from the current market price of Rs 655 — using a three-stage DCF with a 10.5% WACC and 5% terminal growth rate. The case is built on a store count that is set to nearly triple, SSSG of 18% sustained over five years, and a supply chain moat that ICICI Securities believes makes Lenskart structurally defensible against competitive threats.
The India Growth Engine — Stores Tripling, SSSG at 18%
The India business growth model has two levers. India revenue is expected to grow from Rs 53 billion in FY26 to Rs 82 billion in FY28 — approximately 56% growth over two years. Of this increment, approximately 40% comes from new store additions — with store count growing from approximately 2,600 to approximately 4,000 — and approximately 60% from same-store sales growth at the existing network.
The SSSG assumption of approximately 18% over FY26-31 is the number that requires the most scrutiny — it is high relative to most brick-and-mortar retail companies. ICICI Securities grounds it in two specific drivers: Lenskart’s ongoing premiumisation push, which lifts average transaction values; and the growing eye-testing funnel, which converts non-buyers into first-time prescription eyewear customers. “We estimate Lenskart’s India business to deliver a revenue CAGR of approximately 23% over FY26-31E, as we expect its store count to almost treble with SSSG of approximately 18% over the same period,” the report states.
The domestic market share gain from approximately 6% to approximately 7% in the near term — and higher over the longer term — reflects Lenskart’s structural advantages in a category where organised retail penetration remains low. India’s optical retail market is still predominantly unorganised, and the shift toward branded, quality-assured eyewear at accessible price points has years of runway ahead.
The Supply Chain Moat
The brokerage identifies three specific competitive advantages that are difficult to replicate quickly.
First — next-day delivery in 78 cities. Lenskart’s ability to manufacture and deliver prescription spectacles within 24 hours requires a combination of proximity manufacturing, inventory management and logistics coordination that has taken years to build. A new entrant would need to replicate this network city by city before being able to match the customer experience. Second — vertically integrated manufacturing facilities. Lenskart controls its own lens and frame manufacturing, giving it pricing power, quality control and margin capture across the value chain. Third — owned physical and digital distribution. The combination of 2,600+ stores and a strong e-commerce platform creates an omnichannel distribution advantage that neither pure-play physical nor pure-play digital competitors can easily match.
“Given the company’s supply chain moat created by next-day delivery in 78 cities, vertically integrated manufacturing facilities and owned physical and digital distribution channels, we believe Lenskart is well positioned against competitive threats in the medium term,” ICICI Securities states.
International
The international business — at Rs 38 billion in FY26 — is a meaningful and growing part of the Lenskart story. Store count is expected to grow from 718 to 843 by FY28 across Japan, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and other markets. Revenue is projected to grow from Rs 38 billion to Rs 60 billion over the same period — driven by unit growth and realisation gains as the store network matures and the product mix premiumises.
Japan — one of Lenskart’s most developed international markets — has established strong traction with local consumers who value the quality and service proposition. The Middle East and Southeast Asia markets offer significant runway as organised eyewear retail remains underpenetrated relative to income levels. The Meller brand acquisition — which ICICI Securities incorporates in its international estimates — adds a sunglasses dimension that broadens the product portfolio and extends the average transaction value.
The Valuation Question
ICICI Securities addresses the valuation concern directly rather than avoiding it. At the target price of Rs 750, the India business EV/EBITDA would be approximately 48x — regressed from trend valuations for high-growth Indian retailers — while the international business would trade at approximately 20x EV/EBITDA, broadly in line with global peers. The three-stage DCF with 10.5% WACC and 5% terminal growth rate provides the fundamental anchor.
“We are constructive on this scrip despite the perceived rich valuations,” the brokerage states. Rich valuations on high-visibility growth with a defensible competitive position are not the same as rich valuations on speculative growth. “This improves earnings visibility for investors and creates room for incremental rerating with every positive news flow,” the report notes.
Scorecard
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Market Price | Rs 655 |
| Target Price | Rs 750 |
| Upside | 15% |
| Rating | BUY (Initiation) |
| Valuation | 3-stage DCF, 10.5% WACC, 5% TGR |
| India Revenue FY26 / FY28E | Rs 53bn / Rs 82bn |
| International Revenue FY26 / FY28E | Rs 38bn / Rs 60bn |
| India Store Count FY26 / FY28E | ~2,600 / ~4,000 |
| International Store Count FY26 / FY28E | 718 / 843 |
| India Revenue CAGR FY26-31E | ~23% |
| India EBITDA CAGR FY26-31E | ~37% |
| SSSG Assumption FY26-31E | ~18% |
| India Domestic Market Share | ~6% (FY26) → ~7% (FY28E) |
| Next-Day Delivery Cities | 78 |