The secondary market went negative for the third straight week, and honestly, that was on expected lines. Global geopolitical tension is still simmering, and both the dollar and crude oil have been swinging around in a volatile way. Those two factors matter enormously for the Indian economy, and that volatility is exactly what has kept sentiment on edge.
The primary market, on the other hand, remains agog with activity. We have about seven IPOs on the calendar this week, and all eyes are on how they get subscribed and, more importantly, how they debut. Good subscription numbers paired with a listing at a premium rather than a discount is what will keep this momentum intact.
Reading the festive calendar
We are now heading into the festive season proper. It began on the 15th of August with Independence Day, followed by Raksha Bandhan, and now we move into Govinda and Ganpati, with Dashara and Navratri to follow.
Right after Ganpati comes the fortnight that Indian market participants traditionally treat as inauspicious, Shraddha Paksha. Investors, merchant bankers and promoters alike tend to avoid committing to anything new during this period, and that typically shows up as a lull in secondary market activity and a thinner primary market calendar too.
After that comes Dashara, then Sharad Purnima, and finally Diwali, the festival of lights. That stretch is usually when the market shifts into a more positive gear, and we could well see FIIs turning more constructively bullish on India.
FII flows are already turning
If we look at the last month and a half, FIIs have genuinely turned positive after a long gap. For August so far, FIIs alone have put in about Rs 27,000 crore of net positive buying, and DIIs have added another Rs 45,000 crore on top of that. Looking at the last month and a half, FIIs alone have brought in close to Rs 50,000 crore.
Big names like Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Kotak Mahindra Bank and HDFC are all constructive on the Indian economy and market, and expectations are that FII buying could accelerate meaningfully once we’re past Ganpati, even though many will likely stay on the sidelines through the inauspicious Shraddha Paksha window itself.
The one real worry is the monsoon. It has been irregular this year, excessive in some regions and deficient in others, and that unevenness could weigh on growth. If it does, it risks spiralling into inflation pressure, both from general prices and from key metals and crude oil, and that would cascade into broader market sentiment.
Caution is still warranted
Even with all this positive setup, it remains a time for caution. As I flagged last week, IPO pricing continues to run hot, and greedy pricing is very much visible. Adding to that, some primary market operators pushing GMPs have gotten quite aggressive, artificially jacking up grey market premiums to lure subscription.
Case in point: Tempsens Instruments (India), which commanded close to a 100% grey market premium and went on to list at over 100% premium itself. That is a massive windfall for anyone lucky enough to get an allotment, and it’s likely to give a further psychological boost to other issues in the pipeline.
On fundamentals, there are still some genuinely good techno-fundamental names in the mix, Hy-Tech Engineers, Symbiotec Pharmalab, Lumino Industries and ESDS Software Solution among them.
On the SME side, Kwick Forensic Solutions and Sumax Engineering have looked solid, and Shanti Inorganics, Phychem Technologies and Paluck Technologies are coming up next.
These are names investors can reasonably try their luck with, but as always, that decision should follow a conversation with your financial advisor, not a GMP chart.
Last week’s listings: a clean sweep, almost
Last week was a good one for debutants. Nearly every IPO that listed did so in positive territory, though some of that shine did come from GMP-driven adjustments on listing day itself, which raises the question of how long this run can continue.
On the main board: Horizon Industrial Parks listed up 0.42%, Sunshine Pictures gained 10% on debut, Shankesh Jewellers rose 11%, Gaja Alternative Asset Management was up 16%, and Tempsens Instruments stole the show with a listing pop of over 100%. Augmont Enterprises and Mopshop Distribution also had a good showing on listing.
On the SME side, the picture was more mixed. Credent Connect N Care listed at a 90% premium, a strong showing, but that was followed by two comparatively muted listings in Skytech Infinite Platform and Fascinate Textiles. Technocrats Plasma Systems delivered a smart 74% premium on the BSE SME platform, while ENS Enterprises listed at a modest 4% premium.
Dhanwel Hybrid Seeds, always a weaker issue, listed flat, neither premium nor discount. And Mopshop Distribution’s SME listing actually closed with a small deficit of about 0.72%. So SME listings have been genuinely uneven, and that is worth keeping an eye on for how the segment performs going forward.
September could be a record month
We discussed this last week too, and it bears repeating: September is shaping up to be a heavy month for the SME segment specifically. For context, September of FY25 saw a record of around 59 primary issues in a single month.
This time, primary market operators are indicating September could see more than 80 IPOs, with roughly 20 on the main board and the rest on the SME side. As always, we’ll need to wait for the formal announcements to firm up.
NSE and Jio: the wait continues
On the mega IPO front, Jio has reportedly received the green signal from SEBI and is now looking at a Rs 30,000-35,000 crore issue, likely in the latter half of September, possibly slipping into the first week of October.
Media reports also suggest SEBI’s chief has indicated the regulator is close to clearing NSE’s much-awaited mega IPO, and the market is expecting that one to land around the same window, potentially the first week of October as well. It’s genuinely unclear which of the two comes first, but either way, an issue of this size landing on the market could create a temporary liquidity crunch that spills over into the secondary market.
This week’s watchlist, and one word of warning
For the IPOs currently in the market, Priority Jewels, Paluck Technologies and Kwick Forensic Solutions, I’d expect positive listings for the stronger names, particularly Hy-Tech Engineers, Symbiotec Pharmalab, Skyways Air Services, Lumino Industries and ESDS Software Solution. Some of the other issues carry more aggressive pricing and may not hold up as well.
One name that deserves real caution is Purple Style Labs. The company has posted losses for the last three fiscal years and its book value is negative, yet it’s coming to market with a hefty premium on a Rs 10 face value share. That is exactly the kind of issue where investors need to think twice before committing funds, techno-fundamentals over GMP, every time.
Be cautious, trade safely, and don’t ignore the opportunities either. Q1 numbers have shown genuinely positive signs across corporate India, with several companies beating expectations, and there’s enough on both the primary and secondary side for those who do their homework. Every investment in the securities market carries an element of market-related risk, so stay alert, stay disciplined, and invest wisely.