Silver has done even better at 160%. Here is what Kotak’s research says you should do with your bullion allocation right now
Akshaya Tritiya 2026 arrives on April 19 with gold already trading above Rs 1,50,000 per 10 grams on MCX — one of its strongest runs in recent memory. For retail investors staring at those levels and wondering whether the rally has run its course, Kotak Neo Research has a clear answer: stay the course on gold, add silver tactically, and treat any short-term volatility as an accumulation opportunity rather than a reason to step back.
Behind the Rally
The performance data for this year’s Akshaya Tritiya is genuinely striking. MCX Gold has delivered gains of approximately 62% over the past year, rising from around Rs 94,700 per 10 grams to Rs 1,53,300 — marking one of its strongest annual rallies in recent cycles. Silver has been even more dramatic, surging roughly 161% over the same period to Rs 2,50,400 per kg. “Silver has outpaced gold significantly,” the Kotak report notes, driven by a combination of safe-haven demand and strong industrial consumption, particularly from renewable energy and electronics sectors.
How India’s Gold Demand Is Evolving
Elevated prices are reshaping how Indians buy gold. Jewellery demand has softened meaningfully, with annual demand projected to moderate to 600-700 tonnes from over 810 tonnes in 2024. But the more interesting shift is on the investment side — coins, bars and gold ETFs are seeing robust demand as younger investors gravitate toward regulated, liquidity-friendly formats. Gold recycling has also surged, accounting for an estimated 40-70% of purchases through exchange transactions, as consumers trade old jewellery rather than deploy fresh cash at record price levels. The report describes this as “evolving consumer behaviour” — a structural move from holding physical gold to treating it as a financial asset.
Gold ETFs: Eleven Straight Months of Inflows
India’s gold ETF ecosystem continues to deepen. March 2026 marked the eleventh consecutive month of net inflows into gold ETFs, with total folios reaching 12.1 million — a number that reflects growing retail participation in regulated bullion investment. Total holdings have risen to 114.9 tonnes with AUM at record highs. The Kotak report frames this as “a more mature and dynamic investor approach toward gold ETFs,” with the blend of fresh inflows and selective profit-taking suggesting investors are managing positions actively rather than simply accumulating.
What to Do With Your Bullion Allocation
Kotak’s practical recommendation is worth noting directly. For retail investors, “maintaining a gold allocation of 8-15% remains a prudent strategy for portfolio stability,” the report says. On silver, the case is more tactical — with its dual role as a precious and industrial metal, the report recommends a 20-25% silver allocation within the overall bullion sleeve, alongside 75-80% in gold. The medium-term return potential for silver is described as higher, though with greater volatility given its industrial linkage.
On MCX technicals, gold has rebounded roughly 30% from its March lows with support near Rs 1,40,000 and resistance at Rs 1,60,000-1,75,000. A breakout could extend gains toward Rs 1,80,000 and Rs 2,00,000, the report says, while persistent global uncertainties — fiscal imbalances, geopolitical tensions and ongoing central bank diversification away from fiat assets — continue to underpin the long-term case.