Markets are expected to have cracked double-digits in the March quarter, yet retail traders never blinked — option premiums are estimated to have jumped 40%+ and Angel One has flagged 13% QoQ order growth. JM Financial calls it a “strong quarter for retail brokers,” with Angel One and 360 ONE WAM the preferred ways to play it into the print.
Here’s the counterintuitive read ahead of earnings season: the worse the market got, the busier the retail trader is expected to have been. While the NSE 500 fell 14% in the March quarter, India’s retail brokers and wealth managers look set to head into results in surprisingly good shape, according to JM Financial’s 4QFY26 Asset and Wealth Management preview. The brokerage’s verdict is right there in its title — “Strong quarter for retail brokers.”
For investors trying to figure out where the resilience sits in a falling market, the preview draws a clean line: transactional, retail-driven businesses are expected to have held up, while institutional and primary-market-linked revenues are seen suffering.
Retail Broking: Volatility Is the Business Model
The standout signal is options activity. JM Financial notes that “option premiums have grown 40%+ in the quarter, aided by volatility and despite negative sentiments over STT raise in the Budget.” Angel One has reported 13% QoQ order growth, and the brokerage expects Groww to post similar volumes. The house models earnings growth of 13%/15% QoQ for Angel One and Groww respectively, even after factoring in higher customer-acquisition costs from heavy ad spends during the Cricket World Cup.
There’s a regulatory kicker too: the delay in the RBI’s capital market notification from April to July 2026 should let brokers like Angel One widen their borrowing base as bank funding slows. JM Financial expects 40%+ earnings growth for both Angel One and Groww in FY27.
Wealth Managers: Recurring Revenue Should Hold the Line
For 360 ONE WAM and Nuvama Wealth, the expected story is steadiness through softness. The brokerage anticipates strong January–February inflows followed by a March slowdown on weaker sentiment, with transactional income staying soft on muted primary-market activity. Crucially, recurring revenue is seen cushioning the blow — and JM Financial argues volatility may even “accelerate the shift to advisory-led, diversified portfolios,” supporting that recurring base.
The house prefers 360 ONE WAM, expecting 16% YoY earnings growth versus broadly flat earnings at Nuvama, which is lapping a high FY25 base (+55%).
The Scorecard
| Company | Rating | 4Q26E PAT growth | Revised TP (₹) | FY28E P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 360 ONE WAM | BUY | +16.4% YoY | 1,320 | 21.4x |
| Nuvama Wealth | BUY | −1.7% YoY | 1,660 | 15.1x |
| Angel One | BUY | +13.4% QoQ | 333 | 15.3x |
| Groww | SELL | +14.9% QoQ | 144 | 23.0x |
Source: Company, JM Financial. Targets reflect the latest revisions in the 9 April note; all figures are estimates for an unreported quarter.
Why Angel One Over Groww
Both brokers are expected to be firing on volumes, but JM Financial splits them on valuation. It keeps a BUY on Angel One and a SELL on Groww — preferring Angel One purely for its “valuation discount to the market leader,” despite Groww’s larger market cap and resilient share in F&O and commodity.
The March quarter is a reminder that broker and wealth-manager earnings don’t always move with the index. JM Financial frames the expected near-term softness as cyclical, not structural, anticipating both wealth players will return to a 20%+ earnings trajectory once sentiment normalises. For now, the trade the preview points to is clear: own the activity, not the index — with Angel One and 360 ONE WAM as the preferred ways to play it.