Indian equity markets ended Monday’s bruising session well off their lows, with the Nifty 50 recovering sharply from an intraday bottom of 24,600 to close at 24,865 which is a sign that buying interest emerged at lower levels even as the broader sentiment remained deeply cautious following a geopolitical shock that rattled global financial markets.
The BSE Sensex, which had crashed over 2,700 points at the open, also pared a significant portion of its losses by the closing bell. While the session was painful by any measure, the intraday recovery offered a sliver of comfort to investors who feared a complete breakdown.
The sell-off was triggered by an overnight surge in crude oil prices — the sharpest single-session spike in four years — after US and Israeli military strikes on Iran sent energy markets into a frenzy. India, which imports nearly 90 per cent of its crude requirements, bore the brunt of the fear. Aviation, oil marketing, auto, and banking stocks led the decline. IndiGo shed nearly 5 per cent. HPCL and IOC slumped under fears of margin compression if pump prices are not revised upward quickly.
Defence major BEL and Sun Pharma were rare bright spots, attracting buyers looking for cover in strategic and defensive names.
Has India Been Here Before?
Many times. And the market has always come back.
When COVID-19 paralysed the world in March 2020, the Nifty collapsed from 12,000 to below 7,600 in a matter of weeks. The headlines were apocalyptic. The recovery was swift and spectacular — within 18 months the index had more than doubled from its lows.
The 2008 Lehman crisis took the Sensex from 21,000 to under 8,000. The 2022 Russia-Ukraine war triggered an almost identical panic — surging oil, fleeing foreign investors, broken support levels. In every single instance, India’s market eventually found its floor and moved higher.
Monday’s intraday recovery, small as it was, fits a pattern that long-term market watchers recognise well. When serious buyers start stepping in at the lows of a fear-driven session, it often signals that the smart money has begun quietly doing its work.
The Worst Ahead?
That said, analysts are not yet ready to sound the all-clear.
The Nifty has broken below its 200-day exponential moving average — a technical development that chartists treat as a serious warning. The 25,000 level, which had provided psychological support for months, now acts as a ceiling. A decisive close above 25,600 is what most technical analysts want to see before turning constructive again.
Until then, the risk is real. A further escalation in the Middle East, crude oil crossing $90 a barrel, additional pressure on the rupee — already trading near 91 to the dollar — or another wave of FII selling could push the index back toward 24,500 or lower.
Foreign Institutional Investors have been relentless sellers since mid-2025, offloading Indian equities worth record amounts over the past year. That trend has not reversed. Brokerage desks continue to advise a “sell on rises” posture for short-term traders until momentum clearly shifts.
But Patience is also a Virtue
For those with a three-to-five year view, the calculus looks different.
Valuations have corrected meaningfully from their peaks. India’s earnings growth story, its domestic consumption engine, and its infrastructure push remain fundamentally unchanged. A war in the Middle East does not alter the trajectory of a country adding millions of new investors, taxpayers, and consumers every year.
Domestic Institutional Investors made that bet loudly on Friday — purchasing over Rs 12,000 crore in equities even as foreign funds sold heavily. Monthly SIP flows continue to cross Rs 29,000 crore without interruption, giving fund managers a reliable pool of capital to deploy on exactly these kinds of down days.
Analysts are not asking investors to be brave or reckless. The word being used in careful conversations across broking desks is nibble — buy a little at these levels, a little more if it falls further, and let time do the rest.
The Sensex was trading at 8,000 in 2008. Even after Monday’s carnage, it sits above 80,000. That is the long arc this market has traced through every war, pandemic, and crisis that came before this one.
The Nifty recovering from 24,600 to 24,865 in a single afternoon is not proof the bottom is in. But it is a reminder that even on the worst days, someone out there is buying.
