By Dilip Davda
Rising geopolitical tension kept global markets under pressure last week, and India, as a major importer of crude oil priced in dollars, was hit hardest. Fear of rising inflation and a possible US Fed rate hike kept everyone on their toes.
After a gap of over 25 years, we have now seen eight negative weeks in a row, and the concluded week was a clean sweep: every single session closed in the red. Escalating Russia-Ukraine and US-Iran tensions, costlier crude and a firmer dollar added fuel to the fire, and the disturbed scenario in the Gulf nations weighed on sentiment too.
Benchmarks slip below key barriers
Monday set the tone, with the Sensex shedding 1,124 points and the Nifty 360 points. By Thursday, both benchmarks had closed below their sentimental barriers: the Sensex at 71,909.70, under 72,000, and the Nifty at 22,421.95, under 22,500.
Over the four sessions, the Sensex lost nearly 2,000 points and the Nifty about 719 points. Many blue chips also hit 52-week lows, and bulls preferred to stay liquid, unwinding their portfolios at every rise, particularly ahead of the three-day holiday during the ongoing inauspicious fortnight of Shraddha Paksha.
For the week ahead, the rupee is hovering near Rs 96.30 to the dollar and crude is volatile around $102.50 a barrel. A deficient monsoon is a further concern. The Q2 results season is about to start, but the market will turn stock-specific as usual.
September 2026: busiest in primary market history
Now to the primary market, where the contrast is striking. September 2026 saw 101 primary issues: 34 mainboard IPOs, 52 SME IPOs, 13 rights issues and two NCD issues.
That is a historic month for Indian primary markets, and it came amid a bloodbath in the secondary market, which took everybody by surprise. In the first three days of the concluded week alone, we saw 22 issues: four mainboard IPOs, 16 SME IPOs and two rights issues.
Mainboard: heavy subscriptions at the top, thin interest at the bottom
Six mainboard IPOs closed during the week. Moneyview was subscribed 101.87 times and Orient Cables (India) 97.28 times. German Green Steel and Power drew 30.42 times, A-One Steels India 12.22 times, AceVector 5.07 times, and Runwal Enterprises just 2.64 times.
Two issues opened and closed within the week: SRIT India was subscribed a remarkable 125.16 times, and Shah Investor’s Home 38.12 times. Vishal Nirmiti and Nityas Gems, which opened during the week (and is currently open), had garnered only 0.60 times and 0.69 times respectively till Thursday’s close.
Listings: Adroit and Moneyview lead
On the listing front, the mainboard picture was mostly positive. Adroit Industries listed with a gain of 75.37% and Moneyview with 63.56%, followed by A-One Steels India at 14.07%, Swastika Infra at 8.11% and Varmora Granito at 4.73%. ArMee Infotech listed flat, and Elevate Campuses saw a marginal move of 1.91%.
SME listings were more muted. Robokidz Eduventures and Roopa Screen both listed at a 90% premium, and Himalaya Nutravedics gained 11.32%. FX Multitech rose 6.08%, Pooja Logistics 2.61%, Vivekanand Cotspin 2.70% and Unitec Fibres 2.27%. SK Offset managed 0.80%, while Anand Seamless and Coreintegra Consulting Services barely moved at 0.14% and 0.13%.
Mixed listings like these will keep a tab on sentiment for primary market offers, which still appear to be priced greedily.
SME: a few frenzied issues, many ordinary ones
The SME platform showed an extreme spread of investor interest. Vans Electroengineerings was subscribed 628.73 times, Roopa Screen 387.50 times, Bench Mark Infotech Services 103.12 times and Black Opal Consultants 73.80 times.
At the other end, Acme Universal Safezone drew 23.41 times, Sai Urja Indo 4.95 times, Peshwa Wheat 2.77 times, Pind Hospitality 2.71 times and Papadmalji Agro Foods 2.54 times, while Shivchem Agro, Dudani Retail, Himalayan Solar and Green Asia (after its closing date was extended) managed between 1 and 2.2 times.
Among the SME issues still open at the time of the report, Acme India Industries (1.97 times), Sollfege Smart Electronics (1.86), Eventions (1.80), TNA Solutions (1.71), EverestIMS (1.70) and Paramount Syntex (1.35) had seen modest interest, while Shree TNB Polymers (0.98), Dove Soft (0.86), Omara Ventures (0.69) and SJP Ultrasonic (0.54) were still struggling to cross full subscription.
Now a dry spell, but not for long
For the week ahead, there is a dry spell for mainboard IPOs, and on the SME platform just one issue, R K Fashion. There are no NCD issues and no rights issues either. It may look as if the frenzy is over, but I would not read it that way.
Primary market operators say over 30 offer documents were filed with regulators during the concluded week, and reports suggest more than 35 IPO documents are with the regulators across mainboard and SME.
That means we may soon see more than two IPOs clubbed on a single day again. It is time for SEBI to turn strict on this, a matter that has so far gone unheard by the merchant banker lobby.
Jio: the mega IPO to watch
The big one on the horizon is Jio Platforms, with reports suggesting an offer of about Rs 30,000 crore in the second half of October. A formal announcement is likely soon, and its pricing will decide how it fares.
Amid a weakening global economy, overshooting commodity prices and deficient rain pushing up food prices and the fear of higher inflation, caution is warranted. Investors should be careful with primary market investments, and equally careful about bottom fishing in the secondary market.
Every investment in the securities market carries an element of market-related risk, so stay alert and invest wisely.
