By Dilip Davda
At last, the fall has stopped. The week under report opened with a gap-up and posted gains in its first two sessions, followed by two negative sessions and a gain on Friday. That was enough to turn the week green and snap the eight-week losing streak.
The Sensex gained 562.63 points and the Nifty 98.50 points for the week. Punters are calling it a pullback rally, driven by short covering in an oversold market, and I think that is a fair reading. Even so, it gave local investors a sigh of relief after weeks of bleeding.
A rally
FIIs were net sellers for the entire week, which remains a worry. DIIs were net buyers throughout and arrested what could have been bigger falls. Thursday was the one mega loss of the week. The Sensex shed 1,045 points and the Nifty 371 points, on fears that deficient rain could wreck the inflation outlook and on a 25 bps repo rate hike by RBI.
The damage was short-lived, though. Friday’s short covering brought the Sensex back to 72,472 and the Nifty to 22,520, and market breadth turned positive on the last session. Shrewd punters credit the gains to value buying in index counters.
Market grapevine also says that money shifting into the primary market is creating a liquidity crunch in the secondary market. That could continue, because another mega issue, Jio Platforms, is set to float its maiden IPO before the month ends.
What to watch
The rupee turned highly volatile. It touched Rs 97 to the dollar before closing at Rs 96.73. Crude also crossed $108 a barrel before ending the week at $105. These two factors will keep a major bearing on market trends for a while. Deficient rain is likely to cast its shadow on the economy through higher inflation, which could derail growth.
On the brighter side, we have 140-plus board meetings next week and activity should pick up around the festive season. I see the Sensex in a range of 70,000 to 75,100 and the Nifty between 21,550 and 23,550.
The primary market
Now to the primary market. After a record September, it has paused, and I read this as preparation. Going by the offer-filing trends of the last six weeks, more gigantic times are ahead. The really major activity should surface around March 2027, judging by the SME IPO line-up.
The mainboard had a dry spell last week, with no fresh openings. Two earlier issues closed: Vishal Nirmiti was subscribed 1.79 times and Nityas Gems 2.26 times. For the coming week, two mainboard IPOs are lined up, HD Fire Protect and Fusion CX.
Mainboard listings: a modest week
Five mainboard issues listed. SRIT India led with a 13.85% gain, followed by Nityas Gems at 6.67% and Shah Investor’s Home at 2.40%. On the other side, AceVector slipped 11.50% and Vishal Nirmiti 2.27%. After the big pops of the previous fortnight, this was a sobering week.
SME: the real fate of the segment
On the SME platform, 10 IPOs closed and RK Fashion opened and closed within the week. The subscription spread was striking. EverestIMS drew 294.22 times, Acme India 124.23 times and TNA Solutions 55.20 times, while most of the rest scraped through at 1 to 2.7 times.
Shree TNB Polymers got 1.98 times, Omara Ventures 1.06 times, Sollfege Smart 2.14 times, Eventions 2.39 times, SJP Ultrasonic 1.82 times, Dove Soft 1.38 times, Paramount Syntex 1.88 times and RK Fashion 2.70 times. Next week has just two SME IPOs, Vaibhav Vyapaar and Ravita Engineering.
The listings were wildly uneven. Of 21 SME listings, six closed below the issue price and three were flat. Pind Hospitality and TNA Solutions both fell 20%, Himalayan Solar fell 17.48%, Dudani Retail 13.79%, Paramount Syntex 9.45% and Eventions 5.93%.
Bench Mark Infotech, Green Asia and Shivchem Agro listed flat. Others did well: Vans Electroengineerings and Sollfege Smart Electronics rose about 90%, EverestIMS Technologies 48.24%, Acme Universal Safezone 42.25%, Sai Urja Indo 18.41%, Shree TNB Polymers 13.21%, Acme India Industries 12.76% and SJP Ultrasonic 10.75%.
Notice the pattern. The big gains came mostly from issues that were subscribed hundreds of times, while a heavily oversubscribed issue like TNA Solutions still fell 20%. That tells you the SME listing game is a lottery in which a fifth of the tickets carry a big loss.
I repeat my advice. Stay away from the GMP game played by operators, merchant bankers and promoters working hand in glove. Do your own due diligence before investing in the primary market, where greedy pricing remains the order of the day.
Jio and the second-half rush
According to primary market operators, the Jio Platforms IPO is all set to begin its maiden issue process from Monday onwards, with the aim of listing its shares before the month ends.
There are also reports of more mainboard issues from Bonfiglioli Transmissions, Zetwerk, Paras Healthcare, Tonbo Imaging and Sahajanand Medical Technologies. Formal announcements and other IPO details are likely early next week. The second half of October 2026 may well turn out to be a busy fortnight for the primary market.
On the NCD front, SME Global NCD opened last week and IBL Finance has an NCD lined up for the coming week. On rights issues, Natco Pharma is the one to watch next week.
Do your own due diligence, consult your financial advisor, and remember that every investment in the securities market carries an element of market-related risk. Stay alert and invest wisely.
